Choosing Smarter

Video - My TEDx Ottawa talk (now in HD!) (12 mins)

My TEDxOttawa talk from December 6, 2009 about how software could be much better at helping people make complex decisions. Agree? Disagree? Comments welcome below...

All of the amazing talks from that day are available here.

Why the Apple iPad will flop: it's unpocketable

The iPhone is successful because it's basically a computer. As far as computers go, though, it's a pretty crappy one. Can't play most modern video games. Can't run office suite software (i.e., the most popular kind of software in the world). Can't play Flash or online video from sources other than YouTube or iTunes. Can't can't can't... So why do people (like me) love it? One reason, and one reason only. It's a pocketable computer.

With the iPad, if I want to be able to use it whenever I need it, I would have to sacrifice the use one of my hands carrying it around for almost every waking hour. No-one is going to do that. People don't carry netbooks around with them 24/7, even though having access to a netbook 24/7 would be handy. It's just too much of a hassle to have something in your hand all the time.

People do carry their iPhone with them 24/7, though, because when not in use, you can stick an iPhone in your pocket or on a belt clip and it is, for all intents and purposes, gone. The iPhone is a success because it's a crappy computer that's there whenever you happen to need it (even when you're not expecting to need it). That's a killer combination. The iPad is a crappy computer that won't always be there when you need it. Dead in the water, baby.

While the iPad is smaller than most laptops and even netbooks, if I have to carry it in a backpack or briefcase, it's just as unpocketable as any other laptop or netbook. That makes it a netbook, regardless of what uncle Steve says.

So the question becomes, how does the iPad stack up against other netbooks and laptops (especially considering that you can get a pretty kickass laptop for $500 nowadays and carriers are giving away netbooks for free with service contracts). Lots of others have gone into depth on this, and my take is "not well". Fanboys keep pointing to the 140,000 iPhone apps that will make it useful, but, um, laptops support pretty much every app ever written (i.e., millions). The iPad has a browser that's comparable to a desktop browser, but even netbooks have a desktop browser.

Yes, the UI is wonderful (it really is), but not wonderful enough to compensate for all the other shortcomings (no support for desktop apps, poor connectivity options, tiny storage, un-interchangeable battery, etc.). I also believe that people will ultimately prefer a mouse. It's not as sexy, but it's faster because it takes less effort to move a mouse around a 2" square surface than to move your whole finger/hand/arm across a 9.5" area, and everyone is already used to using a mouse. Touch is more intuitive, but a mouse is faster.

The Newton wasn't pocketable either...

Why the Apple tablet will flop

It's not pocketable.

While the iPhone is often called "basically a computer", as far as computers go, it's a pretty crappy one. Can't play most modern video games. Can't run office suite software. Can't play Flash or Activex controls. Can't can't can't... So why do people (like me) love it? One reason, and only one reason. It's pocketable.

When not in use, you can stick an iPhone in your pocket or on a belt clip and it is, for all intents and purposes, gone. You have both hands free to do something else. You never have to consciously bring it with you -it's always there. Less danger of leaving it in a cab. Aside from that, it's crappier in every single respect to laptop with a 3G card. It's not even cheaper than a laptop.

While the Apple tablet will likely be smaller than most laptops, it won't be pocketable, which makes its size advantage almost irrelevant. If I have to carry it in a backpack or briefcase, it's just as unpocketable as any other laptop.

So the question becomes, how will the Apple tablet stack up against other netbooks and laptops (especially considering that you can get a pretty kickass laptop for $500 nowadays and carriers are giving away netbooks for free with service contracts). Because of the Apple tablet's expected small size, I'm guessing it will have limited speed, limited memory, limited battery life, and limited connectivity options compared with most laptops (similar to the sacrifices Apple had to make in order to get the Macbook Air to fit in a velum envelope).

If it comes in at the expected $1000 price point, it had better be have some mind-bogglingly awesome other features...

Book Review: "Drive", by Daniel H. Pink

I got my first computer when I was 11. Because it had so little memory, I had to learn how to program in assembly in order to make it do what I wanted, which I was doing by 13. Two years later, I took "Introduction to Computer Science" in grade 10.

I almost failed the class (54%, if you must know).

When I was writing computer programs (well, OK, games) for myself, I would work feverishly for hours (well, OK, months) and produce work that was at least eight years ahead of my grade level without any instruction. When it was assigned to me as homework, I could barely bring myself to even look at it.

Three years following that, I almost failed Psychology 101, then developed a personal interest in it 20 years later. I've been inhaling dozens of books on the subject for last year, and probably have a Masters-level grasp of the field at this point. A grasp that will, at most, contribute only vaguely to how I make a living.

I have to be careful writing this review of Drive, because it advocates many ideas with which I agree. Emphatically. It could be the worse book ever written, but I will still love it.

The basic idea is that businesses and other social institutions have largely failed to recognize that people are motivated by more than just carrots (pay-for-performance, applause, etc.) and sticks (fines, reprimands, etc.). That people do their best work for intrinsic reasons, i.e., reasons that have nothing to do with external (i.e., carrot and stick) motivators. Reasons like achieving mastery of a discipline, or gaining a sense of purpose, for example.

The knee-jerk response by many managers, teachers, etc. is that this sounds nice, but is touchy-feely stuff that doesn't work in the real world. Pink then reviews 40 years of research evidence from an array of disciplines showing that carrot/stick environments consistently yield lower productivity and higher turnover, not to mention employee misery. He explains it far better than this in his entertaining, 18-minute TED talk. But buy the book -the extra detail and actionable lists are well worth it.

I've been following much of Dan's advice my entire life, so it won't change much about the way I work or play. My current company is based on an idea that I pursued out of purely personal interest, and the company itself has been ROWE from day one.

The difference is that, before reading Drive, I had no idea what ROWE was. Before reading Drive, I wasn't aware of the mountains of research that showed that being intrinsically-motivated is actually a mostly good thing. I've always believed that it was, but that belief was challenged almost daily for at least the first half of my life.

Like Dan, being intrinsically-motivated also meant that I did not respond well to extrinsic motivators. Like grades. Or money. (I do like applause, though...) Doing things that don't interest me or for which I don't see the purpose has always been a struggle, and has occasionally earned me assessments such as lazy, undisciplined, unfocused and even learning-delayed. Every report card I ever got had the same thing in the comment field: "Not working to potential."

I produced some pretty crappy work early in my working life because I didn't think that it was necessary, or that it was being done as efficiently as it could be. Thankfully, I discovered entrepreneurship and the work I've produced since then has been remarkably better. (In fact, come to think of it, Drive is the best explanation what makes entrepreneurs tick that I've yet come across. If you're an entrepreneur and someone asks you why the Hell you're doing what you're doing, give them this book.)

So I guess that's what I got from this book. A powerful affirmation that it's OK (and even desirable) to be intrinsically motivated, despite the bumps in the road that this can entail. (A more detailed discussion of the bumps would have been interesting, though... a "Being a Type I in a Type X world" chapter, maybe.)

The writing itself is the kind that's so good that you don't notice how good it is. Potentially dry, hard-to-follow concepts are laid out with seemingly effortless clarity, and often humour (Canadian, eh?). Having read a number of "more advanced" books about related topics, I still gained new insights because of the superior presentation of the same research.

Depending on whether you're a more intrinsically- or extrinsically-motivated person, you'll probably read this book from very different perspectives, but you'll almost certainly get a lot out of it.

Rogers is INCREASING their Home Phone rates?!?!? Are you kidding me?

Just got a letter from Rogers telling me that they are "continually investing in technology", and must increase my home phone monthly fee by $3/month, or about 10% more than what I was paying before.

Just off the top of my head, 4 reasons why this is ABSOLUTELY LUDICROUS:

1. The Rogers Home Phone service has NEVER been upgraded in any way that I've noticed. The features themselves (voicemail, caller ID, etc.) have all been around for 10+ years. Whatever capital costs they incurred to deploy it are almost certainly paid off by now. I'm guessing it's all gravy at this point.
2. The amount of network resources required to route low-bandwidth voice calls is MINISCULE. I would be surprised if it costs Rogers more than $2 or $3 /month to provide this service to me. Including connection fees to other phone networks.
3. Rogers is making a healthy profit, thankyouverymuch, and operates in one of the least competitive telecom markets in the World. Don't talk to me about "business necessities".
4. In a World where Skype can sell me minutes for either FREE or less than $0.03 (and dropping), are they TRYING to get me off of their phone service?

We only keep a landline because we have kids and want to make sure we always have at least one working way to call 9-1-1, but this is getting stupid. With all of the various associated fees, we're at about $40/month plus taxes for this "in case of emergency" service.

Time to shop around. Primus looks like it has some good deals right now...

XP to Windows 7 upgrade: Not smooth

Well, to be fair, frying XP and installing Windows 7 was incredibly easy and problem-free. Getting all of my files and data back up and running again... that was NOT.

All the apps that I use regularly (Thunderbird, iTunes (yuck), TweetDeck, etc.) all installed just fine, but what they DIDN'T like was the fact that default location of "My documents" is different in XP and Win7. Like a good little user, I had kept anything I would be upset about losing in My Documents, but my diligence didn't pay off this time.

Most apps didn't find their data automatically in the new My Documents path, and had to be explained where their data was. When it could be explained... Thunderbird 3.0 apparently refuses to even look outside of its own default email folder (as I discovered after a terror-filled 15 minutes of thinking that it was refusing to show me my email altogether). And iTunes still refuses to acknowledge the existence of my dozens of purchased Audible audiobooks (yes, I re-authorized Audible within iTunes -still no luck). I also lost hours of work that I had invested tagging faces in pictures in Picasa. My pics and videos are still there, but the face data is gone (yes, I used the Picasa backup/restore tool, which is supposed to grab the face data as well).

So now, some of my important files are outside of My Documents, which I hate, because I have to remember to include them anytime I do a backup. I've lost hours of work in Picasa, and I still can't see my Audible audiobooks in iTunes. This is where I'm at after 2 days of work and troubleshooting. And 20+ years of Windows experience. I suspect that all of this has to do with the new Documents folder structure in Win7.

So who do I shake my fist at? That's the most frustrating part of all. Microsoft didn't really fail me, and neither did the app developers (with the possible exception of Mozilla/Thunderbird). The ecosystem failed me.

Damn ecosystem.

I do like the Windows 7 interface though. Very nice.

Who am I?

Speaking at TEDxOttawa (December 2009)
Photo (c) 2009 Mike Gieger

I'm the CEO of ChoiceBot Inc. I like long walks in the rain, and puppies.

For a more complete professional bio, check out my LinkedIn profile.

For a more complete personal bio, check out my Facebook profile.

For a stream of my consciousness, check out my Twitter feed.

Why it's a good idea to seek out change. Except when it's a bad idea.

Just commented on Julien Smith's insightful post about changing one's own behaviours and seeking out change and challenges. In a nutshell, the idea is that you should get out there and try stuff to strengthen yourself and confidence. But read the post, because there's more to it than that.

His post was timely for me, because I've been thinking about the whole idea of seeking out change, challenge and risk for a while, so I puked up my current thoughts on Julien's blog, and it came out like this:

I agree with the “seek out change often” advice, though the natural next question is often ignored, i.e., if forcing the brain to adapt to new circumstances keeps us “psychologically limber”, why don’t we all seek out change all the time?

I suspect that the answer has to do with “mental bandwidth”. Adapting to change requires a lot of energy to re-wire the brain, and if you do it too often, you burn out. The “brain as a muscle” analogy is valid here… Keep it challenged/worked out, but don’t overdo it -the trick is to know when you’re engaged in a constructive workout/change, and when you’re going too far.

After all, “I didn’t think I could do it, but I managed to” stories are everywhere, but it’s because no-one does motivational speeches about ending in failure and nervous breakdowns… Hollywood is bursting with people who “went for it and gave it their all” and who are now depressed, bitter waiters.

I don’t want to be a downer here, and I say these things as someone who takes more risks than most and has exceeded their own expectations on a number of occasions. I just think that the “just do it” mantra is often bad advice, and should be replaced with something more nuanced:

1) Identify activities that expand your baseline limits and capacity to adapt (like exercise, getting enough sleep, etc.), and do them often.

2) Every once in a while, do something at which you might fail. This is the key -to pick something where the real possibility of failure exists, but at which you stand some chance of succeeding. Find out everything you can about the challenge beforehand, and make sure you have the mental reserves to deal with a failure and move on. Then do it.

3) Understand the role of randomness in the world. If you fail, try to recognize that external factors play more of a role than most people realize, so don’t beat yourself up too much (see “The Drunkard’s Walk” by Leonard Mlodinow for more on this).

Not very pithy, but more helpful, I think.

Book review: "Trust Agents" by Chris Brogan and Julien Smith

About two weeks ago, I saw Julien Smith speak at an event here in town. We chatted briefly after his very engaging talk, discussing Dan Gilbert and Dan Ariely, amongst other shared influences. I ended up showing him some screenshots of ChoiceBot. He seemed interested, so I sent him a follow-up email. Never got a response. Bastard. UPDATE: Julien never got my email. We ended up relying on Twitter for reliable telecommunications. Scary. Anyhoo, I would have totally understood if he hadn't replied to my original email. Read on...

Then I read Trust Agents. In it, Julien explained to me exactly why he didn't respond to my clumsy email. In fact, I listened to it as an audiobook which was read by him (as well as his co-author, Chris Brogan), so it really felt like he was actually telling me personally, in explicit detail, why he didn't respond to my self-serving email. For 6 1/2 hours. A bit hard on the ego, but I needed to hear it. He does a brilliant job of explaining not just social media etiquette, but also why it works the way it does, and why it should work that way.

Before reading Trust Agents, I understood the mechanics of social networks and social media, but not the "rules". I "got" Facebook because I used it only for purely personal and family contacts, but my attempts to start to leverage social networks for my business were clumsy, and I wasn't sure where the lines were that should not be crossed.

So now I know. I get it. Sorry Julien.

My review of the book itself? Very valuable to all but the most seasoned social media butterflies. Unless you're one of those, you should read it if you're looking to use social networks for anything other than purely personal use. Thumbs up. 4.5 stars. Pick your scale, and put my review somewhere well into the positive end.

A few (very minor) flaws -to me anyway....

1) The advice "as long as you keep at it, people will start paying attention to you online eventually" only works if you have reasonably interesting ideas and the writing skills to express them. The harsh reality is that many people just don't, and could waste a lot of their time following this advice. If the authors' assumption is that anyone who has the wherewithal to read the book in the first place probably meets both of these criteria, then I retract this comment.

2) I have trouble with the idea that "it's different now because consumers are in control". It's a bit naive to think that people were drones before 2002, who would buy any old shit as long as it was on TV. Plenty of products failed in the 70s too... Yes, a lot has changed, but the bottom line is that large-scale brand advertising still works, and the data show that large corporations still exert enormous influence on consumer behaviour. The channels are just different now. See Jay Rob Walker's "Buying In" for more on this.

3) For the audiobook version, I didn't like the authors sharing reading duties. It was a bit distracting the have the book's "voice" change at the beginning of a new chapter. I also wasn't crazy about Julien's reading voice (sorry Julien). I'm no professional voice actor, but many syllables were mashed together or dropped altogether, and the speaking volume wasn't consistent, making it hard to hear in a noisy environment (I listen while walking outdoors).

These are very minor issues, however, and I have already recommended the book to several people, and now this includes you.

Ah-HA!

I knew it.

I've had a blog post draft kicking around for a while entitled "The spreadsheet people are among us." Basically, I believe that there are millions of people using Excel to capture their findings when researching complex purchase decisions, but we're all too ashamed to fess up to our anal retentiveness to talk about it publicly. And now there's proof!

I recently upgraded to Microsoft Office 2007 (better late than never...). Upon firing up the "new" Excel, I noticed this:

Apparently, Microsoft's research revealed that so many people were using Excel to gather information for making complex decisions that they put the official anal-retentive cell formatting colour scheme right smack in the middle of the main, default toolbar/ribbon.

Having used ChoiceBot for over a year now, I can't imagine using an app that doesn't actually do anything with my colour-coding, though. That would be kind of like using a pen and graph paper instead of a spreadsheet program to work on a bunch of numbers.

Irony... get it?